Local Market Monitor's National Economic Outlook for October
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 24, 2018
Local Market Monitor, a National REIA preferred vendor, recently released their National Economic Outlook for October, 2018 where they share their thoughts on developments taking place in the U.S. economy.
National Economic Outlook – October 2018
October 23, 2018
By: Ingo WinzerAfter the wrenching ups and downs of real estate markets over the last ten years, it’s fair to ask where we are now. Home construction can give us a partial answer. Back in the boom days before 2008, when sub-prime mortgages put an extra 5 million people into a home, builders were putting up units as fast as they could – about 2 million per year. It still wasn’t enough, though, and home prices kept climbing.Then, during with the recession, when many sub-prime loans ended in foreclosure, construction plunged to little more than half a million units per year – and many builders went out of business. In recent years activity picked up again and last year 1.3 million new homes were built.
For the size of the US population, however, the average number of homes built per year should be 1.8 million. We haven’t seen that level since 2006. What this means is that even though too many homes were built before 2008, we’re now facing a chronic shortage. Builders can’t possibly scale up fast enough, so we’ll see demand greater than supply for years – and higher home prices.
Total jobs in September were up 1.7 percent from last year, the same rate we’ve seen for months. Jobs were up 2.2 percent in manufacturing, 0.4 percent in retail, 1.4 percent in finance, 2.8 percent in business services, 1.9 percent in healthcare, and 1.7 percent at restaurants. As usual, government jobs were almost flat.
The increase in manufacturing jobs is encouraging, but it’s business services that’s pulling the economy along. The lack of growth in retail jobs – online shopping – looks like it’s permanent.
Don’t miss what else Ingo has to say about the economy this month.
Click Here to see his FREE 5 minute webinar.About the Author: Ingo Winzer is President of Local Market Monitor, and has analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years. His views on real estate markets are often quoted in the national press and in 2005, he warned that many housing markets were dangerously over-priced. Previously, Ingo was a founder and Executive Vice President of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun and Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in Finance from Boston University. He resides in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
www.LocalMarketMonitor.com
[email protected]
800.881.8653
New Homes w/Private Wells & Individual Septic Systems
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 23, 2018
While not exactly sexy, this is an interesting item from a data and public health perspective. According to research from the NAHB’s Economics analysis of the Survey of Construction (SOC), about 9% of new single-family homes started in 2017 were served by individual wells and more than 16% have private septic systems. Interestingly, New England has the highest occurrence of septic systems and wells in the nation. The SOC classifies community or shared water supply/wells as public water rather than individual wells. Nationally, more than 9% of new single-family homes started in 2017 are served by individual wells, and the remaining vast majority of new homes are served by a public water system, including community or shared water supply/wells. Now you know.
Click here to read the full report at the NAHB’s Eye on Housing.
More Americans Say Renting Is Cheaper Than Owning
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 23, 2018
According to a new report from Freddie Mac, over three-quarters of Americans now see renting as more affordable than owning a home. The data, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (reposted on Realtor.com), also says demand for “for-sale” housing could remain soft in the coming months with 58% of renters saying they don’t currently have plans to buy a home.
“Demand for rentals swelled after the recession, as millions of families lost their homes to foreclosure and tight credit made it difficult for young people to buy homes. Rents rose by double-digit percentages in many cities and the share of families who couldn’t afford their rent swelled to record highs.”
Click here to read the full story on Reator.com.
Existing-Home Sales Continue to Slide
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 22, 2018
The National Association of Realtors is reporting that existing-home sales fell 3.4% in September and down 4.1% from one year ago. According to data, there were 5.15 million completed transactions in September with a median price (for all housing types) of $258,100. In addition there were 1.88 million existing homes for sale at the end of September with properties typically staying on the market for 32 days.
“There is a clear shift in the market with another month of rising inventory on a year over year basis, though seasonal factors are leading to a third straight month of declining inventory…Homes will take a bit longer to sell compared to the super-heated fast pace seen earlier this year.” Said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Click here to read the full release at the National Association of Realtors.
Housing Starts Down 5.3% in September
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 22, 2018
The U.S. government is reporting that privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,201,000. This figure is 5.3% lower than August’s revised estimate but is 3.7% higher than one year ago. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 871k, which is 0.9% (±8.9 percent)* below August’s revised number. September’s rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 324k. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This figure is 0.6% lower than August’s revised rate and is 1% below the September 2017. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 851k, which is 2.9% higher than August. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 351k.
Unfilled Construction Jobs Continue to Rise
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 21, 2018
According to BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the count of unfilled jobs in the construction sector increased in August and reached another post-Great Recession level high. Data reveal that the he number of open construction sector jobs increased to 298k in August, which is consistent with survey data indicating that access to labor remains a top business challenge for builders.
Click here to read the full report at the NAHB’s Eye On Housing.
Roofstock Offers Guaranteed Rent on their SFR's
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 21, 2018
Caveat emptor…and of course, the devil is always in the details. That being said, HousingWire is reporting that online property purchasing platform Roofstock is “offering a unique carrot” to entice investors to use its platform – guaranteed rent. Yes, you read that right. The report says that Roofstock recently announced that it is offering an “industry-leading” guarantee that provides up to 12 months of rent on a vacant property purchased through the company’s platform. The company says its “Roofstock Guarantee” begins providing rent payments to investors if the vacant property is not leased within 45 days of the property’s closing. In addition, they are also offering a 30-day, money-back guarantee on SFRs purchased through its marketplace. Indeed….
“We’ve introduced the Roofstock Guarantee to give our investors increased confidence when investing through our platform,” said Gary Beasley, Roofstock’s CEO and co-founder.
PwC’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 21, 2018
PwC recently released their 40th annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate, one of the most highly regarded forecast reports for the real estate and land use industry. The report contains extensive insight & analysis on industry trends and developments based on an extensive survey, multiple interviews and individual market focus groups. Their publication is highlighted by its closely watched list of top emerging cities nationwide which includes their top 10 markets for real estate investors in 2019. Bottom-line: this report is chock full of information affecting all areas of real estate across the nation.
“…2019 could be an exciting year for real estate. Now more than ever, real estate is viewed as a more mature asset class, fueled by the continued allocation of capital to real estate funds. Over the last several decades, we have seen the emergence of a number of different real estate investment vehicles, such as REITs, real estate private equity funds, commercial mortgage backed securities, mortgage debt funds, and crowd sourced investments.”
Emerging Trends in Real Estate’s 10 markets for real estate investors in 2019
1. Dallas/Fort Worth
2. Brooklyn, N.Y.
3. Raleigh-Durham, N.C.
4. Orlando
5. Nashville
6. Austin
7. Boston
8. Denver
9. Charlotte, N.C.
10. Tampa Bay
NAFTA 2018- Good or Bad for Real Estate?
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 21, 2018
In a recent episode of Real Estate News for Investors, Kathy Fettke discusses the recent United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement 
(USMCA) on trade to see if this is a good or bad deal for real estate. This “NAFTA 2018” deal will not go into effect for another year but when it does it could bolster demand for commercial real estate, inparticular. She reports that while there are plenty of critics, a few big names in U.S. real estate are giving it a “thumbs up.”
CBRE says the USMCA could fire up demand for real estate that supports distributors, automotive suppliers, and retailers. It says that NAFTA has helped generate “significant capital investment” in U.S. industrial real estate, and that complex across-the-border supply chains, developed under NAFTA, will be preserved.
Kathy Fettke is the Co-Founder and Co-CEO of Real Wealth Network and is passionate about researching and then sharing the most important information about real estate, market cycles and the economy. She’s author of the #1 best-seller, Retire Rich with Rentals, Kathy is a frequent guest expert on such media as CNN, CNBC, Fox News, NPR and CBS. Her podcasts are a good one to have on your playlist.
America’s Hottest ZIP Codes
BY BRAD BECKETT ON OCTOBER 21, 2018
Once a year Realtor.com zeroes in on what they see as the hottest ZIP codes in America where “homes are flying off the market.” According to their research, young people are fleeing downtown and heading to the suburbs. Downtown, suburbs, in/out…we just wish millennials would make up their minds. Anyway, just be sure to check at their entire list of all 50 places. Indeed…
“It turns out the classic selling points of the burbs—more space, good schools—grow more appealing as young people start families and their priorities shift.”
